Maybe Fallout 76 made Bethesda realize that they need to spend time working on overall quality/performance/general feel of their games and are putting a lot of time towards that. This is just a wild guess, but a guy can hope, right? In any case, a 2022 release might be possible.
There's about ~3 years between major game releases under Bethesda, and since Starfield is rumored for a 2021 release date, I'd expect ES6 to be a 2024 release. I wouldn't be surprised if it was pushed to 2025 or 2026 even. I think the better question is will there be any engine overhauls to the engine used a decade ago in the previous ES game or will it stay outdated. I know Todd said stuff about huge engine overhauls but I'd have to see it to believe it.
I think by the end of 2022, which is more than 10 years between Skyrim and the new TES VI. The recent transition of Bethesda in Microsoft is a big change for a software house.