06-07-2020, 01:36 PM
Due to Gilbert Burns having to drop out due to testing positive for COVID-19, it appears that the late replacement, Masvidal has signed the contract. While it would have been interesting to see if Burns' striking and BJJ could match Usman's striking and wrestling, the hype and story behind Street Jesus makes the new match up all the more interesting. Throw in the fact that they'll be fighting in Vegas rather than Abu Dhabi like the rest of the card, this is really one for the ages.
USMAN
I'll admit, I slept on Usman for a long time. After listening to him talk about how his knees are so shot he needs to walk on grass and go down stairs backwards, I counted him out against Covington. However, he wasn't phased Colby's pace and ended up winning the fight.
Despite his wrestling base, Usman never uses it as his go-to. The fight against Colby had zero wrestling, although they're both wrestlers. It probably goes back to that thing about wrestlers cancelling each other out and neither wanting to gas out. He's fought BJJ specialist Damian Maia and came out ahead, so I think he must be pretty wise to takedowns and that sort of thing. I'd give Usman a pretty decisive edge over Masvidal if things go to the ground.
As far as striking goes, Usman has fought a number of ferocious strikers. Even against powerful guys like Woodley and Emil Meek, he's held his own (actually, he made Woodley look terrible). However, he's not the most "polished" striker. He got stung by Covington a few times, and although he looks very powerful he doesn't have the reputation of a "knockout artist." I worry about what he's said about his knees too.
MASVIDAL
Masvidal is going into this fight with a ton more experience (wins and losses), but this is his first title fight. He's been around a while, but doesn't seem to be worn out -- in fact, he seems to have hit his stride. Although he is taking this fight on very short notice, perhaps he can pull off the win.
In terms of ground game, I wouldn't classify Masvidal as a specialist. He's competent enough to not get subbed, but has been taken down pretty handily and kept there too. If Usman decides to wrestle, it could be a bad night for Masvidal. Usman may well find that keeping him down isn't too taxing and decide to do that for a couple of rounds, especially since his conditioning will be better (as he was actually preparing for the fight).
Ground aside Masvidal shines in striking. Against other guys who are accomplished strikers (known more for their striking than Usman), he's shown he has serious skills. He severely shut down Nate Diaz (let's face it, he made Nate's boxing look bad), and showed some slick movement and countering ability against Darren Till. Even though Till came out aggressive and dropped him, Masvidal looked no worse for wear when he got back up. He made the read and KO'd Till cleanly after. Interestingly, Masvidal's striking was effectively stifled by Wonderboy Thompson. I'll chalk this up to Thompson being one of the best (if not the best) pure strikers in the UFC, who uses kicks and length to great effect. Although Usman will have the stamina advantage, I don't think he has the stand up to do to Masvidal what he did to Covington and Woodley on the feet.
Overall, I see Usman pressuring very hard (confidence in his stamina over Masvidal), trying to get things to the fence so he can secure the clinch or a takedown. He will be wary of the knees (a la Ben Askren) and avoid shooting from a distance. Masvidal will be content to move about and let Usman initiate the exchanges so that he can make his reads and eventually take over the striking. Although the logical (and betting) favorite is Usman, I'm tired of his personality so I'll take Masvidal by decision.
Who have you got??
USMAN
I'll admit, I slept on Usman for a long time. After listening to him talk about how his knees are so shot he needs to walk on grass and go down stairs backwards, I counted him out against Covington. However, he wasn't phased Colby's pace and ended up winning the fight.
Despite his wrestling base, Usman never uses it as his go-to. The fight against Colby had zero wrestling, although they're both wrestlers. It probably goes back to that thing about wrestlers cancelling each other out and neither wanting to gas out. He's fought BJJ specialist Damian Maia and came out ahead, so I think he must be pretty wise to takedowns and that sort of thing. I'd give Usman a pretty decisive edge over Masvidal if things go to the ground.
As far as striking goes, Usman has fought a number of ferocious strikers. Even against powerful guys like Woodley and Emil Meek, he's held his own (actually, he made Woodley look terrible). However, he's not the most "polished" striker. He got stung by Covington a few times, and although he looks very powerful he doesn't have the reputation of a "knockout artist." I worry about what he's said about his knees too.
MASVIDAL
Masvidal is going into this fight with a ton more experience (wins and losses), but this is his first title fight. He's been around a while, but doesn't seem to be worn out -- in fact, he seems to have hit his stride. Although he is taking this fight on very short notice, perhaps he can pull off the win.
In terms of ground game, I wouldn't classify Masvidal as a specialist. He's competent enough to not get subbed, but has been taken down pretty handily and kept there too. If Usman decides to wrestle, it could be a bad night for Masvidal. Usman may well find that keeping him down isn't too taxing and decide to do that for a couple of rounds, especially since his conditioning will be better (as he was actually preparing for the fight).
Ground aside Masvidal shines in striking. Against other guys who are accomplished strikers (known more for their striking than Usman), he's shown he has serious skills. He severely shut down Nate Diaz (let's face it, he made Nate's boxing look bad), and showed some slick movement and countering ability against Darren Till. Even though Till came out aggressive and dropped him, Masvidal looked no worse for wear when he got back up. He made the read and KO'd Till cleanly after. Interestingly, Masvidal's striking was effectively stifled by Wonderboy Thompson. I'll chalk this up to Thompson being one of the best (if not the best) pure strikers in the UFC, who uses kicks and length to great effect. Although Usman will have the stamina advantage, I don't think he has the stand up to do to Masvidal what he did to Covington and Woodley on the feet.
Overall, I see Usman pressuring very hard (confidence in his stamina over Masvidal), trying to get things to the fence so he can secure the clinch or a takedown. He will be wary of the knees (a la Ben Askren) and avoid shooting from a distance. Masvidal will be content to move about and let Usman initiate the exchanges so that he can make his reads and eventually take over the striking. Although the logical (and betting) favorite is Usman, I'm tired of his personality so I'll take Masvidal by decision.
Who have you got??
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