Sometimes situations are staring your straight in the face and you know it is time to take a risk - I made more on shorting GBP before the UK leaving the ERM (mainstream media advised GBP likely to crash out, it was a no-brainer) and shorting banks/going long on gilts before the 2008 crash (lots of worldwide talk about credit bubble, US mortgages etc and then I read a small news article about Barclays blaming failure to pay overnight borrowing on an admin issue (bullshit)) than I have made working. Calling the top/bottom of a market is pure luck, the price depends on many unpredictable things.